Updated at 2025-06-17 20:51:02.818219

=== CALLING bitcoin_analysis_package ===
Before update data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-06-16
  Number of rows: 5019

CSV is already up to date.
After update (unchanged) data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-06-16
  Number of rows: 5019


✅ Complete Bitcoin analysis completed successfully!
=== FINISHED bitcoin_analysis_package ===
           time          open        high         low          close  daily_return_percent     day  year  year_return_percent cycle_year  cycle_year_return_percent  quarter  quarter_return_percent month  monthly_return_percent  week  weekly_return_percent half_month  half_monthly_return_percent
5018 2025-06-16  105555.59375  108915.375  104997.625  106796.757812              1.175839  Monday  2025            14.408345      Year1                  14.408345        2               29.392585  June                2.063758    25               1.175839    2H_June                     1.175839

Output folder: C:\Users\Chris\Downloads\btc_report\btc_report_2025-06-17.2
Success! PDF saved to: C:\Users\Chris\Downloads\btc_report\btc_report_2025-06-17.2\btc_report_2025-06-17.pdf
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1-Month Period Performance:
  Rank Period Mean Return Median Return Success Rate Min Return Max Return Count Is Current Year4 Mean Year4 Median Year4 Success Year4 Count Year1 Mean Year1 Median Year1 Success Year1 Count Year2 Mean Year2 Median Year2 Success Year2 Count Year3 Mean Year3 Median Year3 Success Year3 Count
9 1 October 16.71% 14.6% 72.94% -31.96% 61.22% 425 False 10.93% 12.75% 75% 124 49.98% 48.73% 100% 93 -4.05% -4.46% 33.33% 93 12.82% 28.54% 80.87% 115
1 2 February 11.48% 11.63% 71.21% -31.49% 65.17% 396 False 10.85% 4.71% 50% 116 26.93% 30.1% 75% 112 -5.89% 1.63% 66.67% 84 9.11% 11.06% 100% 84
10 3 November 40.82% 11.54% 65.06% -37.01% 450.16% 415 False 24.9% 25.19% 100% 120 165.87% 54.61% 66.67% 90 -13.89% -16.22% 33.33% 90 2.39% 8.8% 52.17% 115
6 4 July 10.19% 9.92% 69.23% -9.06% 40.61% 403 False 15.4% 13.69% 75% 124 14.7% 15.83% 100% 93 9.59% 16.84% 66.67% 93 -0.68% -4.06% 33.33% 93
0 5 January 5.72% 9.7% 57.54% -32.43% 54.53% 431 False 8.05% 8.22% 75% 124 19.57% 12% 75% 124 -11.31% -16.74% 33.33% 93 1.04% -7.6% 34.44% 90
4 6 May 9.92% 7.06% 57.14% -35.39% 70.36% 434 False 11.01% 10.39% 100% 124 9.38% 1.28% 50% 124 1.75% -15.61% 33.33% 93 17.37% -3.2% 33.33% 93
3 7 April 11.25% 5.4% 64.29% -17.32% 46.47% 420 False 7.41% 5.19% 75% 120 21.22% 20.07% 75% 120 4.94% -1.31% 33.33% 90 9.42% 2.67% 66.67% 90
5 8 June 1.32% 2.12% 55.67% -37.3% 27.85% 406 True 10.71% 11.08% 50% 120 -7.8% -6.02% 43.4% 106 -16.65% -14.77% 33.33% 90 17.51% 14.67% 100% 90
2 9 March 12.27% -1.96% 42.86% -32.83% 186.76% 434 False -3.75% -3.43% 25% 124 51.09% 13.88% 50% 124 -15.03% -17.57% 33.33% 93 9.15% 8.05% 66.67% 93
8 10 September -4.03% -3.11% 36.32% -39.75% 19.8% 413 False 6.54% 6.96% 75% 120 -5.63% -6.97% 0% 90 -9.14% -5.96% 0% 90 -9.92% 2.58% 53.1% 113
11 11 December 6.64% -3.2% 49.65% -34.61% 47.15% 431 False 20.26% 18.54% 75% 124 -4.59% -18.96% 33.33% 93 -8.45% -6.98% 0% 93 12.92% 12% 74.38% 121
7 12 August 1.67% -8.31% 37.71% -26.61% 65.78% 411 False -1.24% -2.85% 50% 124 36.78% 30.92% 100% 93 -13.65% -13.86% 0% 93 -13% -11.26% 0% 101 
2-Month Period Performance:
  Rank Period Mean Return Median Return Success Rate Min Return Max Return Count Is Current Year4 Mean Year4 Median Year4 Success Year4 Count Year1 Mean Year1 Median Year1 Success Year1 Count Year2 Mean Year2 Median Year2 Success Year2 Count Year3 Mean Year3 Median Year3 Success Year3 Count
10 1 November-December 40.27% 27.46% 64.29% -41.42% 259.63% 14 False 50.53% 35.82% 100% 4 116.89% 115.72% 66.67% 3 -21.93% -19.35% 0% 3 19.18% 29.92% 75% 4
9 2 October-November 79.1% 25.99% 64.29% -39.81% 786.97% 14 False 39.7% 37.14% 100% 4 315.63% 129.95% 100% 3 -18.21% -11.58% 0% 3 14.07% 15.4% 50% 4
8 3 September-October 11.47% 18.8% 71.43% -58.75% 59.14% 14 False 16.89% 18.8% 100% 4 41.76% 35.91% 100% 3 -12.45% -10.16% 33.33% 3 1.26% 14.53% 50% 4
3 4 April-May 23.47% 17.47% 64.29% -36.48% 114.5% 14 False 18.89% 16.99% 75% 4 34.68% 30.36% 75% 4 5.33% 8.17% 66.67% 3 32.77% -4.41% 33.33% 3
1 5 February-March 34.18% 12.27% 64.29% -43.36% 373.65% 14 False 9.36% 0.57% 50% 4 110.7% 44.28% 75% 4 -18.94% -31.73% 33.33% 3 18.37% 19.99% 100% 3
5 6 June-July 11.07% 11.29% 69.23% -26.61% 79.5% 13 True 28.16% 18.71% 75% 4 4.16% 11.29% 66.67% 3 -10.26% -7.29% 33.33% 3 16.54% 18.02% 100% 3
11 7 December-January 12.6% 9.48% 64.29% -42.33% 68.2% 14 False 42.35% 47.52% 100% 4 -19.51% -28.27% 33.33% 3 -7.21% -14.04% 33.33% 3 21.79% 18.09% 75% 4
4 8 May-June 14.13% 5.83% 69.23% -47.06% 104.26% 13 False 23% 19.82% 100% 4 2.47% -35.99% 33.33% 3 -11.73% -30.92% 33.33% 3 39.81% 11.01% 100% 3
0 9 January-February 18.65% 5.8% 64.29% -25.69% 153.25% 14 False 18.45% 14.02% 100% 4 55.71% 39.64% 75% 4 -19.04% -24.85% 0% 3 7.19% 2.64% 66.67% 3
2 10 March-April 27.83% 1.93% 64.29% -18.66% 317.18% 14 False 0.8% 0.7% 75% 4 92.47% 20.5% 100% 4 -13.99% -12.91% 0% 3 19.5% 26.31% 66.67% 3
6 11 July-August 13.69% 0.49% 53.85% -25.15% 92.02% 13 False 15.31% 10.82% 50% 4 56.56% 43.16% 100% 3 -4.92% 0.49% 66.67% 3 -12.73% -12.46% 0% 3
7 12 August-September 0.14% -5.1% 30.77% -32.98% 51.48% 13 False 5.56% -2.16% 25% 4 28.76% 29.13% 100% 3 -21.39% -16.59% 0% 3 -14.18% -17.03% 0% 3 
3-Month Period Performance:
  Rank Period Mean Return Median Return Success Rate Min Return Max Return Count Is Current Year4 Mean Year4 Median Year4 Success Year4 Count Year1 Mean Year1 Median Year1 Success Year1 Count Year2 Mean Year2 Median Year2 Success Year2 Count Year3 Mean Year3 Median Year3 Success Year3 Count
10 1 November-January 47.09% 30.53% 78.57% -45.86% 294.52% 14 False 77.59% 65.94% 100% 4 105% 57.73% 66.67% 3 -22.95% -35.83% 33.33% 3 25.69% 20.64% 100% 4
9 2 October-December 73.81% 27.94% 64.29% -44.02% 479.8% 14 False 70.92% 53.16% 100% 4 235.36% 220.84% 100% 3 -25.5% -17.6% 0% 3 30.04% 25.57% 50% 4
8 3 September-November 74.26% 25.94% 64.29% -60.13% 775.53% 14 False 46.1% 46.78% 100% 4 302.19% 110.12% 100% 3 -26.35% -21.29% 0% 3 6.92% 12.09% 50% 4
4 4 May-July 23.52% 20.24% 61.54% -38.04% 111.72% 13 False 41.29% 35.36% 100% 4 17.93% -28.21% 33.33% 3 -8.28% -16.42% 33.33% 3 37.2% 20.24% 66.67% 3
1 5 February-April 55.46% 15% 57.14% -44.1% 589.06% 14 False 11.74% 7.03% 50% 4 173.9% 57.28% 75% 4 -18.41% -8.94% 0% 3 29.68% 26.37% 100% 3
11 6 December-February 29.23% 14.17% 64.29% -50.86% 170.62% 14 False 87.04% 95.07% 75% 4 -23.75% -24.28% 33.33% 3 -0.78% -4.51% 33.33% 3 33.66% 29.88% 100% 4
2 7 March-May 37.2% 12.29% 71.43% -27.37% 281.48% 14 False 11.63% 10.57% 100% 4 95.25% 58.51% 75% 4 -13.37% -26.51% 33.33% 3 44.46% 17.6% 66.67% 3
7 8 August-October 22.15% 11.97% 69.23% -42.08% 125.3% 13 False 15.21% 15.25% 100% 4 93.79% 108.18% 100% 3 -24.16% -18.42% 0% 3 6.07% 8.95% 66.67% 3
3 9 April-June 28.02% 7.61% 61.54% -56.23% 162.95% 13 False 31.56% 38.62% 75% 4 27.83% -6.25% 33.33% 3 -7.69% -7.81% 33.33% 3 59.19% 7.61% 100% 3
0 10 January-March 54.24% 2.72% 50% -50.08% 626.21% 14 False 15.4% 1.61% 50% 4 182.02% 56.73% 75% 4 -29.83% -37.86% 0% 3 19.75% 10.89% 66.67% 3
6 11 July-September 11.88% 1% 53.85% -38.89% 85.15% 13 False 23.85% 9.48% 75% 4 47.23% 41.2% 100% 3 -12.75% -2.68% 33.33% 3 -14.8% -11.5% 0% 3
5 12 June-August 14.48% 0.42% 61.54% -36.88% 106.02% 13 True 28.62% 15.31% 75% 4 44.23% 26.49% 100% 3 -22.3% -23.7% 0% 3 2.65% 0.42% 66.67% 3 
6-Month Period Performance:
  Rank Period Mean Return Median Return Success Rate Min Return Max Return Count Is Current Year4 Mean Year4 Median Year4 Success Year4 Count Year1 Mean Year1 Median Year1 Success Year1 Count Year2 Mean Year2 Median Year2 Success Year2 Count Year3 Mean Year3 Median Year3 Success Year3 Count
8 1 September-February 86.19% 66.01% 64.29% -47.08% 330.1% 14 False 167.12% 168.72% 100% 4 146.54% 117.88% 66.67% 3 -25.88% -45.96% 33.33% 3 44.05% 38.96% 50% 4
9 2 October-March 125.23% 53.4% 78.57% -37.92% 687.47% 14 False 309.75% 260.61% 100% 4 108.09% 60.16% 100% 3 -9.53% -37.3% 33.33% 3 54.63% 38.42% 75% 4
7 3 August-January 103.32% 45.64% 61.54% -62.83% 721.32% 13 False 106.41% 89.49% 100% 4 323.16% 255.38% 66.67% 3 -39.78% -55.83% 0% 3 22.49% 29.44% 66.67% 3
11 4 December-May 104.03% 45.3% 71.43% -44.3% 932.36% 14 False 310.01% 149.6% 100% 4 -37.58% -43.92% 0% 3 44.9% 58.56% 66.67% 3 48.6% 45.3% 100% 4
6 5 July-December 121.97% 45.02% 69.23% -49.84% 718.7% 13 False 102.98% 74.8% 100% 4 404.5% 462.97% 100% 3 -36.4% -42.16% 0% 3 23.14% 38.69% 66.67% 3
0 6 January-June 81.65% 44.32% 69.23% -56.9% 576.21% 13 False 43.8% 46.32% 100% 4 250.72% 155.14% 100% 3 -41.1% -53.99% 0% 3 85.8% 84.33% 66.67% 3
10 7 November-April 135.98% 43.93% 71.43% -38.65% 1171.64% 14 False 404.54% 206.19% 100% 4 41.84% 43.64% 66.67% 3 -1.29% -16.42% 33.33% 3 40.98% 47.41% 75% 4
5 8 June-November 111.69% 42.85% 69.23% -47% 776.49% 13 True 82.81% 75.72% 100% 4 387.4% 332.88% 100% 3 -44.3% -45.97% 0% 3 30.5% 38.57% 66.67% 3
4 9 May-October 54.16% 31.17% 76.92% -45.54% 377% 13 False 63.52% 57.77% 100% 4 142.9% 45.52% 100% 3 -34.02% -31.81% 0% 3 41.12% 31.17% 100% 3
1 10 February-July 75.2% 30.4% 76.92% -39.4% 384.14% 13 False 52.64% 59.83% 100% 4 201.9% 196.25% 100% 3 -30.26% -27.52% 0% 3 84.07% 30.4% 100% 3
2 11 March-August 62.14% 12.04% 61.54% -53.59% 297.45% 13 False 41.85% 33.7% 75% 4 194.46% 281.75% 100% 3 -32.92% -31.97% 0% 3 51.93% 12.04% 66.67% 3
3 12 April-September 44.76% -3.17% 46.15% -57.33% 303.8% 13 False 63.26% 57.17% 75% 4 103.52% 32.2% 66.67% 3 -25.36% -14.01% 0% 3 31.44% -3.17% 33.33% 3
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Analysis includes data from 14 years: 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024

Historical Year-End Returns (Full Year):
2013 (Cycle Year 1): +5437.07%
2017 (Cycle Year 1): +1291.13%
2020 (Cycle Year 4): +303.87%
2012 (Cycle Year 4): +164.80%
2023 (Cycle Year 3): +154.34%
2016 (Cycle Year 4): +122.74%
2024 (Cycle Year 4): +111.33%
2019 (Cycle Year 3): +87.48%
2021 (Cycle Year 1): +57.18%
2015 (Cycle Year 3): +37.31%
2014 (Cycle Year 2): -57.44%
2011 (Cycle Year 3): -57.98%
2022 (Cycle Year 2): -65.41%
2018 (Cycle Year 2): -72.53%

Average Year-End Return: +536.71%
Median Year-End Return: +111.33%

Returns by Cycle Year:
Cycle Year 1 (years: 2013, 2017, 2021):
  Average: +2261.79%
  Sample size: 3 years
Cycle Year 2 (years: 2014, 2022, 2018):
  Average: -65.12%
  Sample size: 3 years
Cycle Year 3 (years: 2023, 2019, 2015, 2011):
  Average: +55.29%
  Sample size: 4 years
Cycle Year 4 (years: 2020, 2012, 2016, 2024):
  Average: +175.69%
  Sample size: 4 years
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Analysis includes 3 years matching cycle year(s) Year 1: 2013, 2017, 2021

Historical Year-End Returns (Full Year):
2013 (Cycle Year 1): +5437.07%
2017 (Cycle Year 1): +1291.13%
2021 (Cycle Year 1): +57.18%

Average Year-End Return (Cycle Year 1): +2261.79%
Median Year-End Return (Cycle Year 1): +1291.13%

Returns by Cycle Year:
Cycle Year 1 (years: 2013, 2017, 2021):
  Average: +2261.79%
  Sample size: 3 years

Calculating best fit line from start to end of data...
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============================================================
BEST FIT LINE FROM START TO END SUMMARY:
============================================================
Total Data Period: 5019 days
R-squared: 0.886678
Scale Type: Log Scale
Daily Growth Rate: 0.1830%
Annual Growth Rate: 94.90%

Historical Performance:
Start Price: $10.90
End Price: $106796.76
Total Change: $106785.86 (979686.77%)

1000-Day Projection:
Projected Price: $1533905.82
Projected Change: $1427109.06 (1336.29%)

Valuation Oscillator Summary:
Current Deviation: -56.67%
Max Overvaluation: 1064.03%
Max Undervaluation: -92.25%
🟢 Currently UNDERVALUED relative to long-term trend

Finding top 3 best fitting linear regression channels for BTC (log scale)...

Top 3 Best Fitting Linear Regression Channels (Log Scale):
================================================================================

1. Window Size: 1000 days
   R-squared: 0.936029
   Daily Growth Rate: 0.1947%
   Annual Growth Rate: 103.39%
   Price Change: $88330.76 (478.34%)
   Start Price: $18466.00
   End Price: $106796.76

2. Window Size: 750 days
   R-squared: 0.882535
   Daily Growth Rate: 0.1966%
   Annual Growth Rate: 104.80%
   Price Change: $79047.76 (284.87%)
   Start Price: $27749.00
   End Price: $106796.76

3. Window Size: 90 days
   R-squared: 0.821350
   Daily Growth Rate: 0.3797%
   Annual Growth Rate: 298.79%
   Price Change: $19928.76 (22.94%)
   Start Price: $86868.00
   End Price: $106796.76

Plotting the top 3 regression channels with adaptive projections...
(Windows ≤100 days: +30d projection, Windows >100 days: +180d projection)
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Results stored in 'top_channels' variable

============================================================
SUMMARY - TOP 3 BEST FITTING CHANNELS:
============================================================

#1. 1000 days | R² = 0.936029
     Annual Growth: 103.39%
     Price Range: $18466 → $106797 (478.3%)

     PRICE PROJECTIONS:
     +30 days: $125,231 ($93,830 - $167,140)
     +60 days: $132,755 ($99,462 - $177,193)
     +90 days: $140,732 ($105,432 - $187,851)

#2. 750 days | R² = 0.882535
     Annual Growth: 104.80%
     Price Range: $27749 → $106797 (284.9%)

     PRICE PROJECTIONS:
     +30 days: $125,828 ($92,708 - $170,779)
     +60 days: $133,464 ($98,324 - $181,163)
     +90 days: $141,564 ($104,279 - $192,180)

#3. 90 days | R² = 0.821350
     Annual Growth: 298.79%
     Price Range: $86868 → $106797 (22.9%)

     PRICE PROJECTIONS:
     +30 days: $126,155 ($114,629 - $138,840)
     +60 days: $141,345 ($127,948 - $156,145)
     +90 days: $158,364 ($142,665 - $175,791)

========================================================================================================================
                           MONTE CARLO SIMULATION SUMMARY TABLE
========================================================================================================================
Method                    Median   Risk/  99% >    95% >    75% >    Median   75% <    95% <    99% <   
Name                      Change   Reward Above    Above    Above    Price    Below    Below    Below   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard GBM (Normal)      +22.9%   3.8:1  $49,717 $66,993 $99,907 $131,298 $173,570 $259,068 $343,538
Fat Tails (Student-t)       +9.9%   2.1:1  $-9,516 $44,098 $85,432 $117,355 $156,388 $239,992 $341,995
Skewed Normal              +27.0%   4.3:1  $59,040 $75,226 $106,156 $135,654 $171,967 $241,711 $305,127
Historical Bootstrap       +24.5%   3.5:1  $46,977 $65,611 $101,933 $132,915 $170,724 $251,637 $336,234
Mixed (Bootstrap + Extremes)  +21.5%   2.8:1  $17,733 $51,938 $95,381 $129,707 $170,417 $259,991 $366,397
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AVERAGE ACROSS METHODS     +21.2%   3.3:1  $32,790 $60,773 $97,762 $129,386 $168,613 $250,480 $338,658
MEDIAN ACROSS METHODS      +22.9%   3.5:1  $46,977 $65,611 $99,907 $131,298 $170,724 $251,637 $341,995
========================================================================================================================

🎯 CONSENSUS FORECAST (Average of All Methods):
• Expected Return (90 days): +21.2%
• Target Price: $129,386
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 3.3:1
• 95% Confidence Range: $60,773 to $250,480
• Extreme Downside (5% chance): Below $60,773 (-43.1%)
• Extreme Upside (5% chance): Above $250,480 (+134.5%)
• 📈 Probability of Profit: 68.1% chance of making money
• 📉 Probability of Loss: 31.9% chance of losing money

================================================================================
     ENHANCED BITCOIN MONTE CARLO SUMMARY (90 Days)
                    Method: Fat Tails (Student-t)
================================================================================
Median outcome: +9.9% change
Risk/Reward ratio: 2.1:1
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $-9,516
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $44,098
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $85,432
→ Median value in 90 days $117,355
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $156,388
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $239,992
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $341,995
================================================================================
→ VaR (5%): $44,098 (-58.7%)
→ VaR (1%): $-9,516 (-108.9%)

📈 PRICE CHART WITH MONTE CARLO LEVELS:
--------------------------------------------------
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================================================================================
     ENHANCED BITCOIN MONTE CARLO SUMMARY (90 Days)
                    Method: Mixed (Bootstrap + Extremes)
================================================================================
Median outcome: +21.5% change
Risk/Reward ratio: 2.8:1
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $17,733
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $51,938
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $95,381
→ Median value in 90 days $129,707
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $170,417
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $259,991
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $366,397
================================================================================
→ VaR (5%): $51,938 (-51.4%)
→ VaR (1%): $17,733 (-83.4%)

📈 PRICE CHART WITH MONTE CARLO LEVELS:
--------------------------------------------------
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========================================================================================================================
                           MONTE CARLO SIMULATION SUMMARY TABLE
========================================================================================================================
Method                    Median   Risk/  99% >    95% >    75% >    Median   75% <    95% <    99% <   
Name                      Change   Reward Above    Above    Above    Price    Below    Below    Below   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard GBM (Normal)      +57.1%   7.8:1  $42,201 $63,509 $112,303 $167,805 $250,170 $442,945 $669,420
Fat Tails (Student-t)      +18.2%   3.2:1  $-93,534 $19,589 $76,458 $126,256 $199,415 $385,180 $657,035
Skewed Normal              +69.6%  10.8:1  $53,858 $77,690 $128,136 $181,164 $257,895 $420,807 $596,586
Historical Bootstrap       +60.2%   7.6:1  $39,160 $61,836 $114,730 $171,142 $254,777 $450,521 $652,018
Mixed (Bootstrap + Extremes)  +50.7%   5.1:1  $-5,748 $38,033 $99,549 $160,987 $248,090 $456,128 $733,058
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AVERAGE ACROSS METHODS     +51.2%   6.9:1  $ 7,187 $52,131 $106,235 $161,471 $242,069 $431,116 $661,623
MEDIAN ACROSS METHODS      +57.1%   7.6:1  $39,160 $61,836 $112,303 $167,805 $250,170 $442,945 $657,035
========================================================================================================================

🎯 CONSENSUS FORECAST (Average of All Methods):
• Expected Return (90 days): +51.2%
• Target Price: $161,471
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 6.9:1
• 95% Confidence Range: $52,131 to $431,116
• Extreme Downside (5% chance): Below $52,131 (-51.2%)
• Extreme Upside (5% chance): Above $431,116 (+303.7%)
• 📈 Probability of Profit: 74.5% chance of making money
• 📉 Probability of Loss: 25.5% chance of losing money

================================================================================
     ENHANCED BITCOIN MONTE CARLO SUMMARY (197 Days)
                    Method: Fat Tails (Student-t)
================================================================================
Median outcome: +18.2% change
Risk/Reward ratio: 3.2:1
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $-93,534
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $19,589
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $76,458
→ Median value in 197 days $126,256
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $199,415
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $385,180
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $657,035
================================================================================
→ VaR (5%): $19,589 (-81.7%)
→ VaR (1%): $-93,534 (-187.6%)

📈 PRICE CHART WITH MONTE CARLO LEVELS:
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================================================================================
     ENHANCED BITCOIN MONTE CARLO SUMMARY (197 Days)
                    Method: Mixed (Bootstrap + Extremes)
================================================================================
Median outcome: +50.7% change
Risk/Reward ratio: 5.1:1
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $-5,748
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $38,033
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $99,549
→ Median value in 197 days $160,987
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $248,090
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $456,128
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $733,058
================================================================================
→ VaR (5%): $38,033 (-64.4%)
→ VaR (1%): $-5,748 (-105.4%)

📈 PRICE CHART WITH MONTE CARLO LEVELS:
--------------------------------------------------
No description has been provided for this image 
🚀 RUNNING COMPLETE YTD ANALYSIS WITH AUTOMATIC CHART...
=== DATAFRAME PREPARATION ===
Date range: 2011-08-18 00:00:00 to 2025-06-16 00:00:00
Total data points: 5019
Price range: $2.24 to $111673.28

Using 2025 for YTD calculation
========================================================================================================================
                           ENHANCED DRIFT RATE COMPARISON - HISTORICAL vs YTD
========================================================================================================================
Method               Hist Daily   Hist Annual %   YTD Daily    YTD Annual %    Difference %   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Simple Mean          0.003254        118.77%    0.001100         40.16%        -78.61%
Geometric Mean       0.001833         95.12%    0.000855         31.20%        -63.92%
Log Returns          0.001831         66.85%    0.001100         40.16%        -26.69%
Volatility-Adjusted  0.002338         85.32%    0.000990         36.14%        -49.18%
Rolling Window       0.002466         89.99%    0.001100         40.16%        -49.84%
Regime-Aware         0.003254        118.77%    0.000855         31.20%        -87.56%

SUMMARY STATISTICS:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Metric                    Historical      YTD             Difference     
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Annual %               95.80%         36.50%        -59.30%
Median Annual %                92.56%         38.15%        -54.41%
Std Dev %                      18.43%          4.01%        -14.42%

🎯 KEY INSIGHTS:
--------------------------------------------------
📉 YTD performance is UNDERPERFORMING historical median
• Historical median: 92.56% annually
• YTD compound annual: 31.20% annually
• Performance gap: -61.35%

📊 MONTE CARLO RECOMMENDATIONS:
--------------------------------------------------
• Conservative (lower): 0.312037 daily (11389.4% annual)
• Aggressive (higher): 0.925573 daily (33783.4% annual)
• Blended (70% hist, 30% YTD): 0.741512 daily (27065.2% annual)
• Historical median: 0.925573 daily (33783.4% annual)
• YTD-based: 0.312037 daily (11389.4% annual)
• Low historical variation allows using either mean or median


================================================================================
🎯 KEY YTD METRICS
================================================================================
📅 YTD Period: 2025-01-01 to 2025-06-16
⏱️  Days Elapsed: 166
📈 YTD Total Return: +13.15%

🎯 YTD Annual Drift: +31.20%
📊 Historical Median: +92.56%
🔄 Difference: -61.35% (UNDERPERFORMING)

📊 GENERATING PERFORMANCE CHART...
No description has been provided for this image 
📊 CHART SUMMARY:
   • YTD Period: 2025-01-02 to 2025-06-16
   • Current YTD Return: +13.1%
   • Expected at Benchmark Pace: +42.1%
   • Performance Gap: -28.9%
   • Status: UNDERPERFORMING benchmark

💾 SAVE THESE VALUES:
ytd_annual_drift = 0.312037
historical_median = 0.925573
performance_gap = -61.35%

📈 Chart generated successfully!
   • Final YTD return: 13.1%
   • Final benchmark: 42.1%
   • Final gap: -28.9%

🎯 MARKET SIMILARITY ANALYSIS - NON-OVERLAPPING VERSION
============================================================
📊 Calculating market features...

🎯 CURRENT FEATURES ANALYSIS:
   Days since ATH: 25
   % from ATH: -4.62%
   RSI-14: 53.5

🔍 Finding similar periods...
✅ Found 6 diverse periods
📊 Analyzing top 3 most similar periods

🏆 TOP 3 SIMILAR PERIODS (NON-OVERLAPPING CHARTS)
================================================================================

#1 MATCH (Score: 0.998) - 28 features
📅 Period: 2024-09-05 00:00:00 to 2024-11-04 00:00:00
🔍 Current Signal Date: 2025-06-16 00:00:00 (Today's analysis date)
🔍 Key Comparisons:
   Days since ATH : Now   25.0 | Then  235.0 | Diff -210.0
   % from ATH     : Now   -4.6 | Then   -8.1 | Diff   +3.5
   30d return     : Now   13.3 | Then    5.9 | Diff   +7.4
   RSI-14         : Now   53.5 | Then   51.3 | Diff   +2.2
📈 What happened next:
   5d :  +13.1%
   10d:  +28.8%
   20d:  +44.5%
   30d:  +45.6%
   60d:  +44.7%
   90d:  +44.0%
No description has been provided for this image 
   └─ Non-overlapping chart created for Match #1

────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

#2 MATCH (Score: 0.997) - 28 features
📅 Period: 2021-07-18 00:00:00 to 2021-09-16 00:00:00
🔍 Current Signal Date: 2025-06-16 00:00:00 (Today's analysis date)
🔍 Key Comparisons:
   Days since ATH : Now   25.0 | Then  155.0 | Diff -130.0
   % from ATH     : Now   -4.6 | Then  -26.4 | Diff  +21.8
   30d return     : Now   13.3 | Then   20.9 | Diff   -7.6
   RSI-14         : Now   53.5 | Then   52.4 | Diff   +1.1
📈 What happened next:
   5d :  -15.0%
   10d:   -9.5%
   20d:  +15.9%
   30d:  +27.4%
   60d:  +33.2%
   90d:   +2.3%
No description has been provided for this image 
   └─ Non-overlapping chart created for Match #2

────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

#3 MATCH (Score: 0.997) - 28 features
📅 Period: 2021-08-02 00:00:00 to 2021-10-01 00:00:00
🔍 Current Signal Date: 2025-06-16 00:00:00 (Today's analysis date)
🔍 Key Comparisons:
   Days since ATH : Now   25.0 | Then  170.0 | Diff -145.0
   % from ATH     : Now   -4.6 | Then  -25.8 | Diff  +21.1
   30d return     : Now   13.3 | Then   16.9 | Diff   -3.6
   RSI-14         : Now   53.5 | Then   58.1 | Diff   -4.5
📈 What happened next:
   5d :  +14.9%
   10d:  +19.3%
   20d:  +29.2%
   30d:  +27.4%
   60d:  +18.3%
   90d:   -2.1%
No description has been provided for this image 
   └─ Non-overlapping chart created for Match #3

Applying clustering filter with 10-day window...
  Filtered from 195 to 18 periods
Found 5 periods with correlation >= 0.7

Top correlated periods:
1. 2022-09-14 to 2023-02-27 (Year: 2022, Correlation: 0.8721)
   Extended to: 2023-08-26 (+180 days)
2. 2023-06-19 to 2023-12-02 (Year: 2023, Correlation: 0.8472)
   Extended to: 2024-05-30 (+180 days)
3. 2013-05-01 to 2013-10-14 (Year: 2013, Correlation: 0.8375)
   Extended to: 2014-04-12 (+180 days)
4. 2015-06-21 to 2015-12-04 (Year: 2015, Correlation: 0.8337)
   Extended to: 2016-06-01 (+180 days)
5. 2015-02-17 to 2015-08-02 (Year: 2015, Correlation: 0.8209)
   Extended to: 2016-01-29 (+180 days)
No description has been provided for this image
No description has been provided for this image
No description has been provided for this image
No description has been provided for this image
No description has been provided for this image 
Detailed correlation results:
  start_date   end_date  correlation  year  period_length  extended_length
0 2022-09-14 2023-02-27     0.872104  2022            167              347
1 2023-06-19 2023-12-02     0.847207  2023            167              347
2 2013-05-01 2013-10-14     0.837541  2013            167              347
3 2015-06-21 2015-12-04     0.833712  2015            167              347
4 2015-02-17 2015-08-02     0.820896  2015            167              347

Best match details:
Period: 2022-09-14 to 2023-02-27
Correlation: 0.8721

=== CALLING bitcoin_analysis_package ===
Before update data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-06-16
  Number of rows: 5019

CSV is already up to date.
After update (unchanged) data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-06-16
  Number of rows: 5019


✅ Complete Bitcoin analysis completed successfully!
=== FINISHED bitcoin_analysis_package ===
           time          open        high         low          close  daily_return_percent     day  year  year_return_percent cycle_year  cycle_year_return_percent  quarter  quarter_return_percent month  monthly_return_percent  week  weekly_return_percent half_month  half_monthly_return_percent
5018 2025-06-16  105555.59375  108915.375  104997.625  106796.757812              1.175839  Monday  2025            14.408345      Year1                  14.408345        2               29.392585  June                2.063758    25               1.175839    2H_June                     1.175839
ORIGINAL ROLLING RETURNS ANALYSIS:
================================================================================
No description has been provided for this image 

================================================================================
AUTOMATIC FORWARD PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS:
================================================================================
Using 5 similar dates identified above for forward performance analysis

FORWARD RETURNS ANALYSIS
================================================================================
Current 30-day return: 0.86%
Similar periods threshold: ±0.50%
Filters applied: Cycle Years: Year1, Quarters: 2
Total similar periods found: 5
================================================================================

Forward Returns Summary:
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Window     Count    Median     Mean       Std Dev    95% CI Lower 95% CI Upper Min        Max        % Positive  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  7 days        5       2.97%       4.84%       6.91%       -3.73%        13.42%       -3.17%      12.14%       80.0%
 14 days        4       3.41%       0.90%      13.72%      -20.93%        22.73%      -17.97%      14.75%       75.0%
 30 days        3     -18.74%      -9.28%      31.73%      -88.09%        69.54%      -35.20%      26.11%       33.3%
 90 days        2      16.34%      16.34%      60.90%     -530.83%       563.51%      -26.73%      59.40%       50.0%
180 days        2     298.33%     298.33%     407.71%    -3364.84%      3961.49%       10.03%     586.62%      100.0%
365 days        2      65.79%      65.79%     138.25%    -1176.30%      1307.87%      -31.97%     163.54%       50.0%

Top 5 Similar Periods (with 90-day forward returns):
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Start Date   End Date     Forward Return  Cycle Year   Quarter 
2021-05-02   2021-07-31   -26.73%       Year1        2       
2017-06-15   2017-09-13    59.40%       Year1        2       
================================================================================

Dates with sufficient 14-day forward data for chart: 4

Showing forward performance chart for these 4 periods:
  1. 2017-06-15
  2. 2021-05-02
  3. 2025-04-18
  4. 2025-05-30
No description has been provided for this image 
ORIGINAL ROLLING RETURNS ANALYSIS:
================================================================================
No description has been provided for this image 

================================================================================
AUTOMATIC FORWARD PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS:
================================================================================
Using 3 similar dates identified above for forward performance analysis

FORWARD RETURNS ANALYSIS
================================================================================
Current 30-day return: 3.53%
Similar periods threshold: ±0.50%
Filters applied: Cycle Years: Year1, Quarters: 2
Total similar periods found: 3
================================================================================

Forward Returns Summary:
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Window     Count    Median     Mean       Std Dev    95% CI Lower 95% CI Upper Min        Max        % Positive  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  7 days        3      -1.71%      -4.07%       6.06%      -19.12%        10.97%      -10.96%       0.44%       33.3%
 14 days        3     -13.33%      -8.34%      11.16%      -36.07%        19.39%      -16.14%       4.45%       33.3%
 30 days        3      -6.50%      -3.38%      32.44%      -83.97%        77.22%      -34.15%      30.52%       33.3%
 90 days        3       7.95%      27.65%      82.68%     -177.74%       233.04%      -43.40%     118.40%       66.7%
180 days        3     254.39%     310.22%     351.48%     -562.90%      1183.33%      -10.00%     686.27%       66.7%
365 days        3     431.31%     293.91%     281.14%     -404.47%       992.29%      -29.50%     479.92%       66.7%

Top 5 Similar Periods (with 90-day forward returns):
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Start Date   End Date     Forward Return  Cycle Year   Quarter 
2021-04-10   2021-07-09   -43.40%       Year1        2       
2017-04-07   2017-07-06   118.40%       Year1        2       
2013-06-04   2013-09-02     7.95%       Year1        2       
================================================================================

Dates with sufficient 30-day forward data for chart: 3

Showing forward performance chart for these 3 periods:
  1. 2013-06-04
  2. 2017-04-07
  3. 2021-04-10
No description has been provided for this image 
ORIGINAL ROLLING RETURNS ANALYSIS:
================================================================================
No description has been provided for this image 
No similar periods found with threshold ±0.5%
Try increasing 'highlight_threshold' or adjusting filter parameters.

===== Bitcoin 50% Recovery Points from 30%+ Drawdowns in 2024-2025 =====
Total recovery points found: 2

----- Average Statistics -----
Average Drawdown: 32.4%

Average Forward Returns:
7 days: -2.9% (Win rate: 50.0%)
14 days: 0.7% (Win rate: 50.0%)
30 days: 3.6% (Win rate: 50.0%)
60 days: 0.8% (Win rate: 100.0%)
90 days: 22.6% (Win rate: 100.0%)
180 days: 58.5% (Win rate: 100.0%)
No description has been provided for this image 
===== Bitcoin 50% Recovery Points from 30%+ Drawdowns Cycle Year(s): Year1 =====
Total recovery points found: 14

Showing 3 out of 14 recovery points (sorted by drawdown size)

Recovery Point #1 (sorted by drawdown size):
Date: 2013-10-18 00:00:00
Year: 2013 | Cycle_year: Year1 | Quarter: 4 | Month: October
Price at recovery: $152.89
Previous peak (high): $259.34
Drawdown low: $45.00
Drawdown amount: $214.34 (82.6%)
Recovery amount: $107.89 (50.3%)

Forward Returns:
7d: 22.0% | 14d: 32.2% | 30d: 212.2% | 60d: 341.5% | 90d: 444.1% | 180d: 660.2%

Recovery Point #2 (sorted by drawdown size):
Date: 2017-01-01 00:00:00
Year: 2017 | Cycle_year: Year1 | Quarter: 1 | Month: January
Price at recovery: $997.75
Previous peak (high): $1163.00
Drawdown low: $382.21
Drawdown amount: $780.79 (67.1%)
Recovery amount: $615.54 (78.8%)

Forward Returns:
7d: -8.8% | 14d: -17.6% | 30d: -3.4% | 60d: 26.0% | 90d: 8.6% | 180d: 147.1%

Recovery Point #3 (sorted by drawdown size):
Date: 2021-08-13 00:00:00
Year: 2021 | Cycle_year: Year1 | Quarter: 3 | Month: August
Price at recovery: $47860.58
Previous peak (high): $64895.22
Drawdown low: $28600.00
Drawdown amount: $36295.22 (55.9%)
Recovery amount: $19260.58 (53.1%)

Forward Returns:
7d: 3.1% | 14d: 2.6% | 30d: -3.8% | 60d: 17.0% | 90d: 35.4% | 180d: 101.6%

----- Average Statistics -----
Average Drawdown: 43.6%

Average Forward Returns:
7 days: 13.0% (Win rate: 64.3%)
14 days: 25.3% (Win rate: 71.4%)
30 days: 57.4% (Win rate: 71.4%)
60 days: 91.7% (Win rate: 92.3%)
90 days: 135.9% (Win rate: 100.0%)
180 days: 364.6% (Win rate: 100.0%)
No description has been provided for this image 
🎯 COMPLETE ANALYSIS FOR Year1
============================================================
🔄 Calculating days since 20-day highs/lows...

📊 CURRENT STATUS (20-DAY WINDOW):
Days since 20-day high: 7
Days since 20-day low: 11
20-day high: $110561.42
20-day low: $100436.88
Current close: $106796.76
Current cycle year: Year1
Current month: June
Current quarter: Q2
------------------------------------------------------------

🧪 HISTORICAL TESTING - 20-DAY WINDOW:
============================================================

🔴 Testing: Days since 20-day HIGH = 7
🔍 APPLYING FILTERS:
==================================================
📅 Cycle Year: Year1

📈 Records: 5,019 → 1,262 (25.1%)
==================================================
=== Historical Analysis: days_since_20d_high = 7 (Filtered: Year: Year1) ===
Total occurrences: 41
Date range: 2013-03-13 00:00:00 to 2025-06-16 00:00:00
Cycle Year breakdown: {'Year1': np.int64(41)}
Quarter breakdown: {1: np.int64(12), 2: np.int64(13), 3: np.int64(8), 4: np.int64(8)}
Month breakdown: {'June': np.int64(5), 'January': np.int64(5), 'April': np.int64(4), 'March': np.int64(4), 'May': np.int64(4), 'October': np.int64(4), 'September': np.int64(3), 'August': np.int64(3), 'February': np.int64(3), 'July': np.int64(2), 'December': np.int64(2), 'November': np.int64(2)}

--- 1-Day Forward Returns ---
Average return: 1.36%
Median return: 0.85%
Win rate: 57.5%
Best return: 21.47%
Worst return: -9.49%
Standard deviation: 5.59%
68% of returns fall between: -4.23% to 6.95%

--- 5-Day Forward Returns ---
Average return: 4.73%
Median return: 4.10%
Win rate: 72.5%
Best return: 37.52%
Worst return: -25.09%
Standard deviation: 11.20%
68% of returns fall between: -6.47% to 15.92%

--- 10-Day Forward Returns ---
Average return: 7.55%
Median return: 6.44%
Win rate: 65.0%
Best return: 58.69%
Worst return: -16.34%
Standard deviation: 15.56%
68% of returns fall between: -8.01% to 23.12%

--- 20-Day Forward Returns ---
Average return: 19.07%
Median return: 5.50%
Win rate: 74.4%
Best return: 194.29%
Worst return: -17.86%
Standard deviation: 40.97%
68% of returns fall between: -21.91% to 60.04%


🟢 Testing: Days since 20-day LOW = 11
🔍 APPLYING FILTERS:
==================================================
📅 Cycle Year: Year1

📈 Records: 5,019 → 1,262 (25.1%)
==================================================
=== Historical Analysis: days_since_20d_low = 11 (Filtered: Year: Year1) ===
Total occurrences: 39
Date range: 2013-01-12 00:00:00 to 2025-06-16 00:00:00
Cycle Year breakdown: {'Year1': np.int64(39)}
Quarter breakdown: {1: np.int64(8), 2: np.int64(12), 3: np.int64(11), 4: np.int64(8)}
Month breakdown: {'June': np.int64(5), 'July': np.int64(5), 'September': np.int64(4), 'April': np.int64(4), 'May': np.int64(3), 'January': np.int64(3), 'October': np.int64(3), 'December': np.int64(3), 'February': np.int64(3), 'August': np.int64(2), 'November': np.int64(2), 'March': np.int64(2)}

--- 1-Day Forward Returns ---
Average return: 0.60%
Median return: 0.55%
Win rate: 60.5%
Best return: 8.53%
Worst return: -18.44%
Standard deviation: 4.63%
68% of returns fall between: -4.03% to 5.22%

--- 5-Day Forward Returns ---
Average return: 2.66%
Median return: 0.44%
Win rate: 55.3%
Best return: 23.53%
Worst return: -8.24%
Standard deviation: 7.07%
68% of returns fall between: -4.40% to 9.73%

--- 10-Day Forward Returns ---
Average return: 5.15%
Median return: 2.96%
Win rate: 63.2%
Best return: 53.56%
Worst return: -28.56%
Standard deviation: 16.51%
68% of returns fall between: -11.36% to 21.66%

--- 20-Day Forward Returns ---
Average return: 11.03%
Median return: 8.14%
Win rate: 57.9%
Best return: 103.40%
Worst return: -30.36%
Standard deviation: 27.65%
68% of returns fall between: -16.62% to 38.68%


📊 SUMMARY COMPARISON TABLE (20-DAY WINDOW - Year: Year1):
================================================================================
Signal Type              Occurrences  1D Avg  5D Avg  10D Avg  20D Avg  1D Win%  5D Win%  10D Win%  20D Win%  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Days Since 20D High = 7  41           1.4%    4.7%    7.6%     19.1%    57%      72%      65%       74%       
Days Since 20D Low = 11  39           0.6%    2.7%    5.2%     11.0%    61%      55%      63%       58%       
================================================================================

⚡ QUICK INSIGHTS (20-DAY WINDOW - Year: Year1):
📈 20D High Signal (7d): 20-day avg 19.1% | Best: 194% | Worst: -18%
   └─ 68% of returns fall between: -21.9% to +60.0% (±1 std dev)
📉 20D Low Signal (11d): 20-day avg 11.0% | Best: 103% | Worst: -30%
   └─ 68% of returns fall between: -16.6% to +38.7% (±1 std dev)
================================================================================

📈 Creating original visualizations...
🔍 APPLYING FILTERS:
==================================================
📅 Cycle Year: Year1

📈 Records: 5,019 → 1,262 (25.1%)
==================================================
No description has been provided for this image 
📈 CREATING INDIVIDUAL YEAR CHARTS FOR Year1:
============================================================

🔴 High Signal Charts (20D High = 7 days):
📅 Creating individual charts for Year1: [np.int32(2013), np.int32(2017), np.int32(2021), np.int32(2025)]
No description has been provided for this image 
🟢 Low Signal Charts (20D Low = 11 days):
📅 Creating individual charts for Year1: [np.int32(2013), np.int32(2017), np.int32(2021), np.int32(2025)]
No description has been provided for this image
No description has been provided for this image 
Conversion successful!
Created: C:/Users/Chris/Python/format_csv.py
Before update data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-06-16
  Number of rows: 5019

CSV is already up to date.
After update (unchanged) data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-06-16
  Number of rows: 5019

Bitcoin performance after first all time high in 30 days (Year1)
================================================================
      Date Bitcoin Close High Price Cycle Year   Week  Month 3 Month 6 Month    Year
01/21/2013         16.52      16.98      Year1  13.01  81.60  619.19  414.77 4893.28
02/20/2013         30.00      30.07      Year1   4.37 133.00  291.67  242.83 1772.87
03/25/2013         75.11      80.00      Year1  39.40  98.38   33.68   64.28  677.22
11/06/2013        263.24     265.00      Year1  49.48 207.71  205.04   64.49   32.95
02/23/2017      1,188.11   1,193.92      Year1   5.80 -19.53  103.71  243.82  755.65
04/30/2017      1,350.21   1,356.00      Year1  15.09  63.20   98.53  327.48  584.50
06/06/2017      2,880.74   2,933.00      Year1  -6.17  -9.73   48.47  290.52  165.85
08/05/2017      3,263.62   3,339.66      Year1  18.12  31.05  118.98  175.74  115.48
10/12/2017      5,445.00   5,445.00      Year1   4.66  16.71  173.46   25.54   13.59
11/16/2017      7,846.96   7,976.79      Year1   1.81 144.53   20.95    8.00  -29.80
12/16/2017     19,187.78  19,377.00      Year1 -23.81 -29.08  -56.96  -65.36  -83.36
01/01/2021     29,402.64  29,700.00      Year1  38.31  12.72   99.74   19.16   62.49
02/08/2021     46,416.45  46,712.12      Year1   3.29  20.33   25.61   -3.89   -5.01
03/13/2021     61,165.19  61,781.83      Year1  -4.95  -2.18  -38.95  -24.15  -38.22
04/13/2021     63,564.48  63,769.00      Year1 -11.11 -21.82  -47.92  -13.92  -35.27
10/20/2021     65,990.31  67,016.50      Year1 -11.40 -11.91  -35.78  -38.15  -71.14
01/20/2025    102,141.00 109,356.00      Year1  -0.05  -5.38  -16.59    4.56    4.56
05/21/2025    109,682.00 110,730.00      Year1  -1.71  -2.63   -2.63   -2.63   -2.63
   Average                                       7.45  39.28   91.12   96.28  489.61
    Median                                       3.83  14.71   41.08   22.35   23.27
% Positive                                       61.1   55.6    66.7    66.7    61.1

Found 155 total ATHs to analyze

Analyzing 14-day pause ATHs...
Found 14 ATHs with 14-day pause
Bitcoin Forward Returns FROM Pause End - 14 day pauses (Year1)
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  ATH Date        ATH Days   End Date  End Price Decline Cycle     1W  1W DD 1W Max     2W  2W DD 2W Max     1M  1M DD 1M Max     2M  2M DD 2M Max     3M  3M DD 3M Max     6M  6M DD 6M Max     1Y  1Y DD  1Y Max
04/10/2013     162.00   14 04/24/2013     149.00   -8.02 Year1 -21.64 -29.60  14.28 -24.05 -45.30  14.28 -13.62 -45.30  14.28 -32.61 -45.30  14.28 -41.62 -57.72  14.28  20.89 -57.72  22.10 237.05 -57.72  680.54
11/30/2013   1,119.80   14 12/14/2013     854.99  -23.65 Year1 -30.18 -55.30   1.75 -16.37 -55.30   1.75  -3.74 -55.30  16.38 -23.66 -55.30  16.38 -26.27 -55.30  16.38 -33.44 -60.26  16.38 -58.30 -67.84   16.38
03/10/2017   1,116.97   14 03/24/2017     929.06  -16.82 Year1  15.20  -4.06  16.35  28.16  -4.06  29.38  33.68  -4.06  34.79 143.71  -4.06 144.87 192.07  -4.06 220.75 317.03  -4.06 436.01 819.96  -4.06 2016.76
06/12/2017   2,667.06   14 06/26/2017   2,421.22   -9.22 Year1   5.34  -5.38   7.18  -4.04  -6.58   9.01   4.29 -24.42  21.34  79.91 -24.42  85.03  51.34 -24.42 105.68 503.79 -24.42 712.24 150.62 -24.42  712.24
09/02/2017   4,599.90   14 09/16/2017   3,678.93  -20.02 Year1   2.72  -5.87  12.06  17.59  -5.87  18.21  56.18  -5.87  58.92  98.26  -5.87 114.41 374.91  -5.87 387.48 124.66  -5.87 434.56  76.68  -5.87  434.56
12/17/2017  18,953.00   14 12/31/2017  13,880.00  -26.77 Year1  16.17  -7.77  24.17  -1.67  -7.78  24.17 -28.16 -33.56  24.17 -21.45 -57.34  24.17 -50.08 -57.34  24.17 -55.30 -58.40  24.17 -73.39 -77.51   24.17
01/08/2021  40,667.07   14 01/22/2021  32,992.06  -18.87 Year1   3.81 -11.64  17.06  16.15 -11.64  17.45  74.26 -11.64  76.87  64.77 -11.64  87.26  56.66 -11.64  96.70  -2.59 -13.31  96.70   6.36 -13.31  109.14
02/21/2021  57,492.91   14 03/07/2021  50,967.30  -11.35 Year1  15.79  -3.24  21.22  12.59  -3.24  21.22  13.83  -3.24  21.22  10.75  -7.78  27.33 -30.28 -41.01  27.33  -1.85 -43.89  27.33 -25.41 -43.89   35.38
03/13/2021  61,165.19   14 03/27/2021  55,839.42   -8.71 Year1   2.19  -2.08   7.64   7.03  -2.08   9.64  -3.16 -15.82  16.22 -29.60 -46.16  16.22 -43.41 -48.78  16.22 -19.58 -48.78  16.22 -16.07 -48.78   23.57
04/14/2021  62,986.09   14 04/28/2021  54,901.97  -12.83 Year1   4.75  -4.59   7.46 -10.05 -11.61   8.56 -34.99 -45.24   8.56 -36.80 -47.91   8.56 -28.10 -47.91   8.56  14.93 -47.91  22.07 -27.59 -47.91   25.68
10/20/2021  65,990.31   14 11/03/2021  62,930.72   -4.64 Year1   3.16  -4.48   9.64  -4.06  -7.20   9.64 -14.60 -18.07   9.64 -24.76 -33.31   9.64 -38.45 -47.64   9.64 -38.79 -47.64   9.64 -67.89 -72.04    9.64
11/10/2021  64,921.43   14 11/24/2021  57,185.06  -11.92 Year1   0.12  -6.78   3.95 -11.61 -26.61   3.95 -11.09 -26.61   3.95 -36.53 -40.54   3.95 -33.08 -42.38   3.95 -49.14 -55.58   3.95 -70.99 -72.93    3.95
01/20/2025 102,141.00   14 02/03/2025 101,457.00   -0.67 Year1  -3.93  -6.63   0.32  -5.60  -7.26   0.32 -10.69 -22.93   0.32 -17.35 -24.50   0.32  -7.04 -26.63   0.32   5.26 -26.63  10.36   5.26 -26.63   10.36
05/22/2025 111,673.28   14 06/05/2025 101,575.95   -9.04 Year1   4.29  -0.40   8.85   5.14  -0.40   8.85   5.14  -0.40   8.85   5.14  -0.40   8.85   5.14  -0.40   8.85   5.14  -0.40   8.85   5.14  -0.40    8.85
   Average                                        -13.04         1.27 -10.56  10.85   0.66 -13.92  12.60   4.81 -22.32  22.54  12.84 -28.89  40.09  27.27 -33.65  67.17  56.50 -35.35 131.47  68.67 -40.24  293.66
    Median                                        -11.63         3.49  -5.62   9.25  -2.85  -7.23   9.64  -3.45 -20.50  16.30 -19.40 -28.91  16.30 -27.19 -41.70  16.30   1.64 -45.77  22.09  -5.46 -45.90   24.93
% Positive                                                       78.6    0.0  100.0   42.9    0.0  100.0   42.9    0.0  100.0   42.9    0.0  100.0   35.7    0.0  100.0   50.0    0.0  100.0   50.0    0.0   100.0

Breakdown by Pause Period:
  14-day pause: 14 ATHs
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Finished 2025-06-17 20:53:38.797614